Bootstrap

[ArgonPlasma2000]

First off I dont believe global warming will be THAT bad. I believe that the media buzz is against an uncertain future; they are afraid of change. That said, for the sake of arguement let us assume that global warming is bad.

Now, recently it was reported that the US has a very respectable oil field under the Dakotas: http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1318522/research_on_bakken_formations_oil_reserves_nearly_ completed/ I'm not sure if this is shale oil, or liquid crude under a layer of shale, or whatever. Colorado also has arguably more shale oil in th eRockies than in the entire Middle East. Either way, my point remains.

Lets say that this offsets oil production peeking for a few more decades. In a few more decades we shall have enough time to see if global warming is as bad as they say it is today. In that time we will have burned up countless billions of oil and released ungodly amounts of greenhouse gasses, possibly even speeding up global warming negative effects to within 20 to 30 years of our doorstep now.

I wish to propose that we needn't worry. Carbon capture is a technology we have right now that can mitigate and theoretically reverse adverse global warming effects. The point of which being in the future with nearly limitless supplies of cheap oil at our disposal, we could leverage solar power stations to drive carbon capture machines.

This is the bootstrap point. This is a point where we have enough cheap oil supplies to build a carbon capture infrastructure that can outpace carbon emmisions from said cheap oil. This way, we can continue using oil but be able ti minimize global warming effects and ultimately reverse them. Moreso, with the solar bootstrap you can place them in spent oil fields to continue recovering oil.

This, of course, raises serious concerns about overpopulation which we are seeing that the earth is currently in such a state. This would continue to allow us to extend into the theoretical peak of 11 billion people. This thread will not address this, as this is something that must be legislated or rationalized in a people.

What say you? Do you think such a bootstrap point will occur and do you think that ultimately global warming will be a nonissue?

[gforce]

So one oil find is going to offset other declines as well as growth in demand for several decades?? Even a whole new KSA couldn't do that.

I have seen estimates for the URR (ultimate recoverable reserves) estimates to be from only a few % to around 20%. So you can subtract 4/5 of the value they have given in that article. So what 30 - 50 billion barrels. That is a year or 2 of consumption, not pushing the peak back by decades,

Anyway reserves don't matter if you can't get it out quickly. Bakken has fairly poor permeability and porosity making it difficult to place lots of wells in a tight area. The field is also 'thin', hence the horizontal wells have to be drilled, which are more costly and difficult. It is the extraction rates that matter.

There is also a shortage of people and equipment to work in the oil industry (have a look at some of the jobs they are advertising). This problem is going to exacerbated by the alot of the experienced workers, the baby boomers, retiring in the coming years so at best you are looking at a decade or two before any significant production starts by which point we will be on the downward slope.

I am also not holding my breath because almost all of these big announcements in the last few years have failed to deliver.

Remember the hype of the deep Gulf of Mexico drilling or the other oil shale's and tars around the world? Still no massively important results. Also in none of these articles does it say any expected production rate or even when production could start.

Yes 1 massive field could help reduce the angle of the downward slope but it is not going to keep pushing the peak forward by decades. T

[ArgonPlasma2000]

Perhaps it wont sustain foreign countries, but the shale oil reserves here is about 2.5Gbbls and is enough to last us well into the next century. Fuck China and India anyway.

[gforce]

Sow how do you suppose the US economy will function with no exports and imports?

And what happens when the rest of the world suddenly realise America is sitting nicely, wars almost always happen over resources.

[ArgonPlasma2000]

Sow how do you suppose the US economy will function with no exports and imports?

And what happens when the rest of the world suddenly realise America is sitting nicely, wars almost always happen over resources.

So our economy birthed itself when the first Model T rolled off the assembly line, is it?

I will spare my post-oil ramblings.