Mexico will run out of oil in a few years.

[Zay]

It is the third largest supplier to the US and number 6 producer in the world. What's going to happen to our economy and way of life? How do we replace our number 3 in a matter of years. We can't. Demand just keeps getting higher and higher.

The point of this thread is that people have a hard time grasping their minds around the concept of peak oil. It's not a left or right political issue, it is a logical, factual observation. There is nothing to argue. The next concept people don't understand is to just what extent the complexity of our society depends on it.

As such, I've narrowed the topic down from this one thread (http://www.totse.com/community/showthread.php?t=2162327) and narrowed it down to the single most immediate change we will see.

Look at what has happened these past weeks in the southern states when the gas stations ran out of gas. Imagine an oil crisis like in the 70's, only instead of faggot arabs cutting us off, mother nature does. Instead of lasting a few months, the result is permanent. What then?

So how is our government prepare for mexico running dry? As energy gets more and more expensive, the issue will dominate both political parties. Eventually energy is set to get more expensive than your taxes. That will simply wreck the economy that relies on cheap products, transportation, and vast disposable income. All of wall street relies on companies growing and expanding. expensive energy means growth slows, or worse, declines, or worst, stops, shrinks even.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/22/bloomberg/bxatm.php
http://seekingalpha.com/article/94209-mexico-running-out-of-oil-and-options
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-mexico30apr30,0,6724124.story

[Dichromate]

We can hope in the short term that the 'economic crisis' slows growth worldwide, or even provokes a more or less worldwide recession. But that isn't going to do jack in the long term.

I'm not even so concerned with maintaining the living standards in regard to personal transport, but the effect on industry and agriculture is well worth worrying about.

At least we're not running out of natural gas yet.
If that ever happens, billions of people will starve. The world won't be able to sustainably produce enough food without cheap ammonia based fertilizers.
(I say if because there might be alternatives by them)

[Synkk]

The United States has only used <10% of it's oil.

Hopefully the next president will allow drilling or whatever so we don't have to worry about it.

Source - A living breathing Petrologist.

[ArgonPlasma2000]

Look at what has happened these past weeks in the southern states when the gas stations ran out of gas.

I live in Mississippi, and we never ran out of gas. I didn't even see gas over $4.

[ArgonPlasma2000]

The United States has only used <10% of it's oil.

Hopefully the next president will allow drilling or whatever so we don't have to worry about it.

Source - A living breathing Petrologist.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html

We have about 21 gigabarrels and we consume about 21 megabarrels, so we have enough total reserves to last 3 years.

We don't have anywhere close to not worry about it.

[OneMestizo]

While this is some scary shit, a part of me is a little excited to see a paradigm shift in the way our society operates in the coming years.

[SWATFAG]

http://www.enn.com/press_releases/2663

Using the above new technology will lessen the use of crude for jet fuel. That will lessen the demand for crude supplies.

Mexico's present presidente is already calling for North America to Integrate.

Look at this

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aErWCiaM5aJk&refer=latin_america

[Zay]

I live in Mississippi, and we never ran out of gas. I didn't even see gas over $4.


http://consumerist.com/5057161/two-more-weeks-of-gas-shortages-in-the-south

[Parallax]

When are people going to realize that there are simply too many people on the planet and not enough resources for all of them? We absolutely MUST get a handle on this overpopulation problem!

[vazilizaitsev89]

When are people going to realize that there are simply too many people on the planet and not enough resources for all of them? We absolutely MUST get a handle on this overpopulation problem!



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Now playing: Muse - Knights of Cydonia (http://www.foxytunes.com/artist/muse/track/knights+of+cydonia)
via FoxyTunes (http://www.foxytunes.com/signatunes/)


word. Gas Africa

[Dichromate]

When are people going to realize that there are simply too many people on the planet and not enough resources for all of them? We absolutely MUST get a handle on this overpopulation problem!

Well yes and no. Not with the current energy use, and reducing energy use would likely mean reducing quality of life.

The problems with Africa in particular are linked to their piss poor governance, which is their own problem really.


Part of the problem for us is that once upon a time even in western countries, if you had so many kids that you couldn't feed them, they starved. Now you have a 'human right' to have as many screaming infants as you please, and if you can't support them it's the obligation of 'society'(everyone else) to do so.

Governments need to start measuring economic success through GDP per capita, not simply GDP itself.
Immigration and increased birthrates do nothing for this, indeed long run economic growth in a developed economy will simply approximate population growth in absence of technological and human capital improvement while GDP per capita remains stagnant.

[Real.PUA]

The global peak and decline will be slow. Like a few percent reduction per year. Prices will go up and demand will go down, while demand for substitutes will increase. The comparisons you have made don't make sense. It wont be like the sudden drops in supply we have seen when refineries break down or foreign countries cut production.

[Mr. Dazed and Confused]

From what I've read, there's a ton of oil in shales in the U.S and Canada, they just haven't figured out how to extract it. Does anyone on totse know about this enough to explain it well?

[ArgonPlasma2000]

From what I've read, there's a ton of oil in shales in the U.S and Canada, they just haven't figured out how to extract it. Does anyone on totse know about this enough to explain it well?

We know how to extract it: just heat it up.

It takes about 1 barrel of oil to get 4, so it's alot more energy intensive than other sources.

[Dichromate]

We know how to extract it: just heat it up.

It takes about 1 barrel of oil to get 4, so it's alot more energy intensive than other sources.

I suppose that could still be some sort of a solution though, depending on just *how* much there is, and how long the production cycle is.

[ArgonPlasma2000]

I suppose that could still be some sort of a solution though, depending on just *how* much there is, and how long the production cycle is.

A 2005 estimate set the total world resources of oil shale at 411 gigatons — enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion barrels (520 km3) of shale oil.[2][3][4][5] This exceeds the world's proven conventional oil reserves, estimated at 1.317 trillion barrels (209.4×109 m3), as of 1 January 2007.[22] The largest deposits in the world occur in the United States in the Green River basin, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming; about 70% of this resource is located on federally owned or managed land.[23] Deposits in the United States constitute 62% of world resources; together, the United States, Russia and Brazil account for 86% of the world's resources in terms of shale-oil content.[20] These figures are considered tentative, as several deposits have not yet been explored or analyzed.[6][2] Professor Alan R. Carroll of University of Wisconsin-Madison regards the Upper Permian lacustrine oil shale deposits of northwest China, absent from previous global oil shale assessments, as comparable in size to the Green River Formation.[24]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale#Reserves

We have, as Penn would say, a motherfucking shitload of it.

[Big Steamers]

You can't say that a lack of oil production in Mexico is 'peak oil'. There is no such thing in Mexico, there are only bad politics and bad management. Take a look at Mexico's history over the past 70 years and you will see that they have dealt themselves death blows to their economy time after time because they live and die by oil. No joke, running out of oil in Mexico is just part of the cycle of their way of handling the economy.

[Lewcifer]

If Mexico runs out of oil to supply the US (whether through dwindling supply or mismanagement), the US will secure more supplies by any means necessary. I wouldn't be surprised if the anti-Chavistas in Venezuela mysteriously acquire lots of shiny expensive weapons in the near future.

At least, that's what I think ;)

[Dichromate]

If Mexico runs out of oil to supply the US (whether through dwindling supply or mismanagement), the US will secure more supplies by any means necessary. I wouldn't be surprised if the anti-Chavistas in Venezuela mysteriously acquire lots of shiny expensive weapons in the near future.

At least, that's what I think ;)

I would be extremely disappointed with the US federal government and its various agencies if they weren't supplying weapons to opponents of Chavez already.

[Mølosh]

The love of oil is mostly fed by the fact that people are getting very rich off it, and those rich people will undoubtedly be able to know when the oil is running out ahead of the rest of us, and invest their money in alternative energy. I'm sure those all those billionaires aren't just going to sit around and say, oh shit, theres no more oil. There goes our money. Damn, eh?

No, they'll find another way to profit, invest heavily in it and that'll be the new trend. There will be government grants for this new "earth saving" technology, tax cuts, all sorts of benefits, the rich will continue to be rich, there''ll be commercials and billboards enlightening the plebes to the benefits of this wonderful new technology, we'll continue to buy their product, whether its oil or whatever else they get going in the future and life will go on.

[Androganis]

Don't buy oil from the dirty mexicans. Buy it from us here in Alberta. Our tar sands make Saudi Arabia look like a puddle. We have so much of the shit that we get $400 checks from the provincial government just because they have simply made too much money off it and they don't have anything to do with it but give it away. This province is overflowing with money. You can earn $25/h working at a coffee shop in Fort Mac. Or if you feel inclined to do so... work in the tar sands and make $100/h (I shit you not)

[Mølosh]

Or if you feel inclined to do so... work in the tar sands and make $100/h (I shit you not)
Yeh, thats great if you want to be a 30 year old with the body of a 50 year old.

[Androganis]

Yeh, thats great if you want to be a 30 year old with the body of a 50 year old.

I worked in the tar sands starting at age 18. I am now 22, going to university studying to be an engineer. I am a home owner, own a $52,000 truck and have a substantial amount of money in my bank account. I look no different from any other 22 year old. I think I have done pretty good for myself and gained some good experience.

[Lewcifer]

I would be extremely disappointed with the US federal government and its various agencies if they weren't supplying weapons to opponents of Chavez already.

Why is that then?

[Dichromate]

Why is that then?

They'd be doing a pretty shit job as far as being 'imperialists' is concerned if they weren't.

(it was intended more of as a humorous comment)

[Lewcifer]

Fair enough.

[Big Steamers]

I worked in the tar sands starting at age 18. I am now 22, going to university studying to be an engineer. I am a home owner, own a $52,000 truck and have a substantial amount of money in my bank account. I look no different from any other 22 year old. I think I have done pretty good for myself and gained some good experience.

But you're Canadian. See the problem?

[SurahAhriman]

I worked in the tar sands starting at age 18. I am now 22, going to university studying to be an engineer. I am a home owner, own a $52,000 truck and have a substantial amount of money in my bank account. I look no different from any other 22 year old. I think I have done pretty good for myself and gained some good experience.

So that'd be a Tonka truck in American dollars?

(Today is the day I joke like it's 1999)