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The 21st Century: After Mars
The 21st Century:
Where Do We Go After Mars?
Between the realm of science fiction, set somewhere in the distant
future, and near-term planning for manned missions, lies a gap in our
thought. This is understandable--near term plans, generally spanning
thirty years or so, are generally within the lifespans of those interested
in them. When we begin to think of events much farther away--40, 50, or
even 100 years from now, we are immediately faced with the knowledge that,
barring some breakthrough in human longevity, we will not live to see our
plans.
Faced with the prospect of our own mortality, seriously considering
the extent of human exploration in 100 years becomes difficult.
Nevertheless, here is some thought on where we might be at the end
of the next century.
Year Location of Activity
Earth Moon Mars Other
2000 SS Freedom Phase I Lunar Orbiter Sample Return Galileo
Mission
2005 SS Freedom Base Project Serious Prelim
Phase II Design Work
2015 Prototype fusion Lunar Base
powerplant
2020 Exper. fusion LOX production Manned Mission
propulsion for-->
2030 2nd LEO station Lunar Manned Base
observatory
2040 Fusion drive Lunar colony/ Phobos Manned asteroid
operational/ mining fuel base mission
3d LEO station
2050 Orbital mfg. LLO station Mars colony
--unlimited fusion power makes orbital heavy industry practical
and subsidizing developing countries possible. Cost of eliminating
pollution and starvation deemed an acceptable burden by developed
world.
2060 Orbital/lunar industry Colonies expanding Manned mission to
begins to proliferate Jupiter system
2070 Solar satellite built around moon, Asteroid mining begins.
where lack of water makes large Manned mission to
scale fusion power impractical. Saturn system
New lunar observatory.
2080 Manned mission to Mercury.
Interplanetary travel has advanced to the point that decades of
planning for all out missions is becoming unnecessary. Future
missions will be underataken like the construction of skyscrapers--
costly and time consuming, but well understood and--almost--routine,
given justification.
Unable to wait any longer, mankind sends 1st unmanned probe to a
nearby star system, realizing that propulsion advances may bypass
the probe prior to completion of its 30 year mission.
(Nominal speed requirement, 0.2c)
2090 Terraforming of Mars begins after 10 years of planning. This limited
20 year 1st phase has a specific objective: reduce surface UV
levels, allowing engineered microorganisms to survive and unlock
soil-trapped gases. The ultimate goal is to increase atmospheric
pressure to approx 5 psi, where with pre-breathing and pressure-
breathing, humans need only use oxygen to work on the surface, and
pressure suits are unnecessary.
2120 1st interstellar manned mission, 20 years round trip, departs.
Since speculation about our future is often very hazy in nature,
I have tried to establish some concrete advances we might expect in the
next century, without yielding to the wish for FTL travel in my lifetime
(or ever). Is this timeline too fast or too slow? Are these advances
to be expected at all? Discussion of alternatives and additions is
welcome.
John McDonnell
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